State of Freight: November 2025
The freight market is sending the same message as Ice Cube when the kids in the backseat wouldn’t shut up: we’re not there yet.
Sure, it feels like something good is on the way:
- A U.S.-China trade deal is finally in the works.
- Interest rates are coming down.
- Spot rates have finally stopped bleeding.
But, not unlike a Dallas Cowboys fan this time of year, you may want to lower your expectations for a Thanksgiving comeback.
Let’s break it down in this month’s freight market update, brought to you by the only people in the company who could have an entire conversation using only numbers and graphs.
October gave us a freight Rorschach test. The New York Fed said manufacturing was surging. Philadelphia, meanwhile, panicked and ran out of the room screaming.
- Philadelphia Fed index dropped 36 points to -12.8
- New York Empire State index jumped 22.6 points to +10.7
That’s a 24-point spread between two major regions, and freight networks don’t know which signal to trust. These mixed messages make it harder to plan capacity.
Trucks are in the wrong places, loads are popping up in tightening lanes, and rejection rates are rising not because there’s too much freight, but because the freight is in the wrong zip code.
One city's boom is another city's bust
October gave us a freight Rorschach test. The New York Fed said manufacturing was surging. Philadelphia, meanwhile, panicked and ran out of the room screaming.
- Philadelphia Fed index dropped 36 points to -12.8
- New York Empire State index jumped 22.6 points to +10.7
That’s a 24-point spread between two major regions, and freight networks don’t know which signal to trust. These mixed messages make it harder to plan capacity.
Trucks are in the wrong places, loads are popping up in tightening lanes, and rejection rates are rising not because there’s too much freight, but because the freight is in the wrong zip code.
Two surveys, one confusing narrative
The ISM Manufacturing PMI shows contraction. S&P Global shows expansion.
So which is it? Well… it’s both:
- ISM: 48.7 (eighth straight month of contraction)
- S&P: 52.5 (third straight month of growth)
How is that possible? Inventory growth hit an 18-year high, so goods are definitely getting produced, but they’re not getting sold. It’s a movement problem.
Goods are going straight into warehouses and staying there. We’re not seeing the usual three-stage supply chain (factory → DC → retail). Instead, it’s a one-and-done move into storage.
That creates a freight “air pocket.” Shipments aren’t flowing downstream, so freight volumes are artificially low, even though stuff is being made.
Carriers are taking a stand
Here’s another mystery: Spot volumes are down 16–18% YoY, but rates are slightly up.
- Dry van spot linehaul is up 3 percent.
- Reefer is up 5.
- Flatbed, 4.
- Contract rates have been stuck at $2.42 per mile for months.
- The spread between contract and spot has narrowed to 35 cents, down from 52 earlier this year.
This doesn’t line up with how freight markets usually behave. In a normal downturn, weak volumes trigger overcapacity, and rates slide downhill. But this isn’t a normal downturn, and carriers are taking notice.
- Most carriers need $1.80/mile just to break even
- Current spot is around $1.69/mile
Long story short: carriers are choosing survival over volume. They’d rather reject freight than haul it below cost. And in doing so, they’ve created a rate floor that’s holding even as demand remains soft.
Think of it as the trucking version of a restaurant refusing to sell $5 ribeyes or me refusing to trade Jonathan Taylor in my fantasy league for anything less than someone else’s entire roster (and even then I might still say no).
Peak season took this year off
September’s Logistics Managers’ Index revealed that transportation utilization hit a flat 50.0, right on the fence between growth and contraction, and the lowest September reading in eight years.
Historically, September is peak season. Not this time. Shippers had already front-loaded inventory earlier in the year. Goods were stuck upstream, warehouses were full, and nothing was moving.
Then October arrived, and finally, some movement. Transportation utilization jumped to 57.3, but only after dragging through a sleepy first half of the month. Think of it like watching a Georgia Bulldogs football game. It wasn’t a steady climb. It was a late, compressed burst.
Carriers, for their part, kept pricing power through it all, with downstream shippers seeing sharp jumps in transportation costs even during the short-lived rally.
Again, this points back to the same theme: the freight market isn’t broken. It’s just clogged. And clearing it takes time.
Triple-locked capacity
Even if demand returns tomorrow, capacity won’t. At least, not right away.
There are three hard locks on growth:
- Labor
- Capital
- Profitability
New drivers are harder to train. Financial conditions are tight. Lending is harder. Insurance costs are higher. And even if you get past all that, operating at current spot rates is still a money-loser for most carriers.
ACT Research highlighted another potential roadblock: tractor builds are down 32 percent from the first half to the second. We’re now below replacement levels.That’s going to matter in 2026. Because when freight demand finally does rebound (and it will – confidence is key, king), there won’t be enough supply to handle it. Not fast enough, anyway.
The labor market is frozen
Layoffs at major companies like Amazon, UPS, Starbucks, and Target made headlines this fall, but despite this, unemployment is basically unchanged:
- Jobless claims are flat around 219,000, right in line with prior years.
- The Chicago Fed’s Nowcast says we’re on track for 4.5 percent unemployment next year, exactly what the Fed projected.
The real story is hiring… or the lack of it:
- Companies have pulled back.
- Job openings are down.
- Young workers are struggling to get in the door.
And that matters for freight. Because when demand returns, carriers won’t just need equipment. They’ll need people. And that hiring muscle has atrophied.
Still waiting...
The freight market feels a lot like showing up way too early for Thanksgiving dinner. All the ingredients are there, but no one has started cooking yet.
Still, there are promising signs for the future:
- Tariffs are being announced at a comically high rate less often than earlier in the year.
- Underperforms are leaving the market.
- Capacity is tighter, slower, and more selective.
But when demand comes back (whether that’s Q2 or Q4 of 2026), supply won’t be ready for it. That’s when the real shift happens.
