State of Freight: August 2025
If you’re wondering why it feels like the market is moving in six directions at once, it’s because it is.
- Imports will be cooling off much, much faster than the weather
by the end of the month. - Manufacturing is sending mixed signals like a bad situationship.
- Spot rates are more dramatic than they have any right to be.
- Imports will be cooling off much, much faster than the weather
Let’s break down what’s going on before something else breaks.
Fragmented or “overly decentralized?”
The freight market feels like a potluck gone wrong
Here’s a fun stat: There are 39% more fleets than there were in 2018.
Know what hasn’t changed? Driver employment.
So, as a result, we have the same number of people spread across way more companies.
That means:
- 18% fewer employees per fleet
- Coordination costs through the roof
- Spot rate volatility that’ll make your head spin
Imagine trying to plan a potluck with 230,000 people who don’t talk to each other. That’s the freight market right now.
To make matters worse, there are 23.7% more brokerages today than there were in 2018.
More carriers. More brokers. Same freight. You do the math.
Manufacturing is a mess
The economic equivalent of “i’m fine”
Manufacturing data in July was all over the map:
- Philly: +15.9
- Dallas: +2.0
- Richmond: -10.0
And while a couple regions are flashing signs of life, manufacturers aren’t hiring. In fact, they’ve cut 100,000 jobs over the past year, and you don’t cut headcount if you’re gearing up for growth.
Import hangover
The post-fireworks freight slowdown is here
The fireworks ended July 4th, and it appears that the TEU surge will end soon as well.
The Port of Los Angeles saw a:
- 35% YoY jump in container volume last week of July
- 32% drop projected by the third week of August
We’re headed for peak volatility in SoCal. Again. Great.
Ocean rates are scraping the bottom of the barrel (lowest since the Red Sea crisis last year), but unless demand shows up, no one’s celebrating.
Rail consolidates while trucks scatter
Monopoly mode: activated
While trucking splits into a million tiny pieces, rail is doing the opposite:
- Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern are merging to form a transcontinental powerhouse that controls 43% of U.S. rail
- Whispers of a BNSF/CSX tie-up are getting louder.
Domestic volumes are rising, and they want to be ready for the day when imports don’t carry the load.
The spot market struggle is real
Working harder, earning less
Rejection rates are 174% higher than 2019, but rates aren’t budging.
The spot market is still stuck around $2/mile, even though ATRI says it costs $2.26 to run a truck. That math doesn’t pencil out unless you really enjoy losing money.
Simply put: everyone’s working harder for less.
Hurricane season is coming
The Southeast might need a snorkel
We’re entering the most active part of hurricane season, and NOAA’s predictive maps look like someone spilled wine all over the Southeast.
This isn’t just a coastal problem anymore. Inland flooding, storm delays, and supply chain chaos are all on the table.
Consider this your friendly reminder to check your weather app before planning a route through Florida.
Death by a thousand tariffs
Ignore them now, pay for them later
If you’ve been ignoring the tariff situation like a weird mole on your back, now’s the time to get it checked out.
Rates are climbing fast:
Effective rate hit 8.8% in June
That’s 3x where it started the year, and it’s set to double again
Short-term price spikes are already showing up. The long-term question is whether this sticks or just bloats and fades.
The labor market is... not great
Shrinking workforce, rising concerns
Unemployment looks like it hasn’t budged much at 4.25%, but if you remove healthcare, we’ve actually lost jobs the past couple months.
Job losses outside healthcare:
- May: -53K
- June: -45K
As if that wasn’t enough doom-and-gloom for you, prime-age employment dropped to 80.4%. Translation: we’re literally aging out of the workforce while slowing new participant growth.
Two futures, one very nervous market
We’re staring down two possible scenarios:
The Snapback:
- Fed cuts rates
- Freight finds footing
- Everyone coordinates just enough to avoid disaster and we all sing “Kumbaya”
The Snap:
- Tariffs crush demand
- Coordination fails
- The market buckles under its own fragmentation and we all sing “Break Stuff” by Limp Bizkit
Needless to say, we’re not in a normal cycle. This is the multiverse of freight madness. Whether we adapt or fall apart depends on how fast brokers, carriers, and shippers can find some kind of rhythm.
