Good morning, and welcome to The Cargo Club!
Today is International Beer Day, one of the rare holidays that requires almost no explanation, preparation, or emotional commitment.
Beer has been around for thousands of years, survived the rise and fall of empires, fueled countless questionable karaoke performances, and somehow convinced people that standing in a parking lot drinking out of a plastic cup before a football game qualifies as a cherished tradition.
So today, we celebrate it.
Have a cold one after work. Visit a local brewery.
Order something with a name like “Hazy Cosmic Lawn Chair” and pretend you can taste the subtle notes of grapefruit and pine.
Sit on a patio and spend 45 minutes saying, “Honestly, it’s not that hot in the shade,” while sweat slowly works its way through the back of your shirt.
And if beer isn’t your thing, that’s fine too. The important thing is that it’s Friday.
We’ve all earned some form of cold beverage.
Cheers!
– Greyson Harris
North American Class 8 truck orders pulled back sharply in July, but the decline looks less like a weakening market and more like the natural consequence of manufacturers having very few 2026 production slots left to sell.
Preliminary Class 8 net orders totaled roughly 22,000 units during the month, according to both FTR Transportation Intelligence and ACT Research. That was about 30% below June but still roughly 70% higher than July 2025.
Sell-out crowd
FTR estimated July orders at 22,000 units, down 31% month over month but up 75% year over year. ACT landed at 22,100, a 68% year-over-year increase despite a 30% seasonally adjusted decline from June.
Both firms pointed to the same explanation: Class 8 production capacity for 2026 is essentially spoken for.
“The sizable month-over-month decline doesn’t reflect a sudden drop in demand for new equipment but indicates a lack of 2026 build slots available as orders run up against full Class 8 backlogs,” ACT Research analyst Carter Vieth said.
That means July’s slowdown may say more about what manufacturers can build than what fleets want to buy.
Replacement demand remains strong, freight rates and fleet utilization are improving, and some carriers are also looking to purchase equipment ahead of future emissions regulations.
Looking ahead
The next wrinkle is what happens when manufacturers finally open their 2027 order books.
Uncertainty surrounding upcoming Environmental Protection Agency emissions requirements could be causing some fleets to hold off until they have a clearer picture of pricing, technology, and production plans for the next model year.
That being said, Class 8 net orders in 2026 are 120% higher than during the same period last year. Orders placed during the current order season, which began in September 2025, are up 39% year over year, while rolling 12-month orders reached 344,823 units.
So despite July’s dip, this remains one of the strongest Class 8 order environments in recent years.
National dry van linehaul averaged $2.32 per mile, down six cents, or 2.4%, from the prior week. Even after the decline, rates remained:
The 10 dry van bellwether states averaged $3.04 per mile outbound, down five cents from the previous week but still 46.5%, or $0.97 per mile, higher than last year.
Those states accounted for 35.4% of all outbound dry van loads, right around their recent baseline. Every major origin softened as summer volumes continued to ease, with the Lower Midwest holding up best at a 1.6% decline.
Load postings fell 3.6% week over week but remained 18.6% above last year. Truck postings dropped much more sharply, falling 12.5% for the week and 27.8% year over year.
That pushed the load-to-truck ratio up to 10.93, compared with 9.92 last week and just 6.64 a year ago.
Contract linehaul averaged $2.25 per mile, leaving spot rates seven cents higher at $2.32.
That’s a notable reversal from the previous freight cycle. Contract rates carried a premium for roughly 45 consecutive months from March 2022 through November 2025, averaging about 24 cents above spot before the spread finally flipped in December.
Spot’s current premium is relatively modest, but it remains another sign of how much the market has tightened over the past year.
DAT’s 35-day forecast projects dry van spot rates will ease slightly to around $2.29 per mile in early September, about three cents below current levels.
The forecast carries an uncertainty range of roughly seven cents in either direction, the widest among the three major equipment types this week. Even at the projected level, rates would remain about $0.63 per mile above the $1.66 recorded around the same time last year.
National reefer linehaul averaged $2.65 per mile, down seven cents, or 2.6%, from the prior week. Even after the decline, rates remained:
The 10 reefer bellwether states averaged $3.63 per mile outbound, essentially flat from the previous week and 42.2%, or $1.08 per mile, higher than last year.
Those states accounted for 41.4% of all outbound reefer loads, slightly above their typical 38% to 40% range. Most major origins softened as summer volumes eased, though the Ohio River region bucked the trend with a 2.3% increase.
Reefer load postings increased 1.6% week over week and remained 27.3% above last year. Truck postings moved sharply in the opposite direction, falling 10.3% for the week and 25.4% year over year.
That pushed the load-to-truck ratio up to 19.38, compared with 17.11 last week and 11.36 a year ago. Reefer posted the tightest load-to-truck conditions of the three major equipment types this week, with freight edging higher while available capacity contracted.
Contract linehaul averaged $2.49 per mile, leaving spot rates 16 cents higher at $2.65.
Contract pricing carried a premium for roughly 44 months from April 2022 through November 2025, averaging about 25 cents above spot before the spread flipped in December.
From 2022 through 2025, contract averaged 21 cents above spot, making today’s 16-cent spot premium another clear sign of how much the reefer market has tightened.
DAT’s 35-day forecast projects reefer spot rates will ease slightly to around $2.62 per mile in early September, about three cents below current levels.
The forecast carries an uncertainty range of roughly seven cents in either direction. Even at the projected level, rates would remain about $0.58 per mile above the $2.04 recorded around the same time last year.
National flatbed linehaul averaged $2.83 per mile, down four cents, or 1.5%, from the prior week. Even after the decline, rates remained:
The 10 flatbed bellwether states averaged $3.58 per mile outbound, down two cents from the previous week but still 39.7%, or $1.02 per mile, higher than last year.
Those states accounted for 52.4% of all outbound flatbed loads, right in line with their typical range. Most major origins softened as summer volumes eased, though the Carolinas bucked the trend with a 3.1% increase.
Capacity crunch
Flatbed load postings fell 4.2% week over week but remained 28.6% above last year. Truck postings dropped even faster, falling 8% for the week and 24.8% year over year.
That pushed the load-to-truck ratio up to 41.06, compared with 39.47 last week and 24.01 a year ago.
Contract linehaul averaged $2.91 per mile, leaving contract rates eight cents above spot at $2.83.
Flatbed remains the only major equipment type where contract still carries a premium, but the gap has narrowed considerably. Contract pricing averaged about 31 cents above spot during its extended run from April 2022 through February 2026, and across 2022 through 2025 the average spread was 30 cents.
Today’s eight-cent gap is only a fraction of that historical advantage, showing how close spot has moved toward contract pricing.
DAT’s 35-day forecast projects flatbed spot rates will remain around $2.83 per mile in early September, essentially unchanged from current levels.
The forecast carries an uncertainty range of roughly seven cents in either direction, the narrowest of the three major equipment types this week. Even at the projected level, rates would remain about $0.80 per mile above the $2.03 recorded around the same time last year.
Truck Parking Sucks – Let’s Fix That.
KCH is teaming up with Truck Parking Club to help drivers find safe, legal parking, without the scavenger hunt.
Use code KCH25 at checkout for $25 off your next reservation.
Less time circling the lot. More time doing literally anything else.
We’re now posting freight on the Trusted Freight Exchange (TFX), a secure, Highway-powered network made for verified carriers like you.
It’s built right into Highway, free to use, and designed to connect you with quality freight fast.
Every KCH load on TFX is:
With TFX, you skip the back-and-forth and get straight to hauling.
Designed for shippers who want straightforward market insight and smarter freight strategies.
