The current freight market looks eerily similar to your friend who passed out at the bar: not dead, but definitely loitering. The surge we all celebrated in late 2024 quietly sat down after Labor Day and hasn’t moved since. But don’t be fooled by the flatline. There’s plenty of chaos to unpack in this month’s freight market update, brought to you by own very own team of dedicated logistics nerds at KCH Transportation. If you’re interested in the full deep-dive, you can download the PDF here.
May truckload volumes
The grass is greener on the shorter side
Total truckload tender volumes are 2% lower than late May 2023, but that average conceals a tale of two freight worlds:
- Short hauls, fueled by e-commerce and local consumption, are thriving.
- Long hauls have withered as shippers are leaning harder on intermodal freight shipping to bridge those costly middle miles.
But here’s the wrinkle: rejection rates are up 37% year-over-year, nearly crossing the 7% mark post-Memorial Day. It’s not a tidal wave, but as we get closer to July 4th, it’s enough to make routing guides sweat harder than me waiting in line at Six Flags
Current trucking fleet density
The Great Fragmentation
There are now over 500,000 trucking companies in the U.S., but half of them have fewer than five trucks. Meanwhile, fleets with 250+ employees account for just 0.5% of firms but move half the freight.
Between 2017 and 2022, micro-fleets surged:
- +68% in employees
- +70% in firm count
Despite that, their share of total trucking employment remains under 10%. Add in a 3% drop in trucking jobs since May 2022, and the industry now looks like the unfinished storage room in your attic: plenty of surface area, but good luck covering it efficiently.
Impact of language requirements for truck drivers
H-ELP me, Rhonda
As you may have heard in recent headlines, new English proficiency enforcement rules are set to go into effect on June 25.
This has the potential to impact roughly 114,000 drivers. That’s 3.8% of the workforce, mostly concentrated in immigrant-heavy freight corridors like Texas, California, Florida, Michigan, and New York.
Why does that matter? Because:
- Texas alone saw 3 million truckloads come in via Laredo in 2024.
- Cross-border trade with Mexico is up 44% since 2010.
- Foreign-born drivers now make up 25% of Texas’ CDL holders.
If enforcement pulls even a fraction of these drivers out of service, it could rattle major drayage freight arteries.
Container volume stalling
Container whiplash
Three weeks post-tariff pause, container volumes from China are rebounding. Not quite 2023 levels yet, but climbing. Drewry’s World Container Index shows:
- Shanghai to LA: +23% to $3,197/FEU
- Shanghai to NY: +29% to $4,527/FEU
Still, those are 28–36% below 2024 prices. And much of the volume feels like precautionary front-loading rather than demand-driven urgency.
For U.S. ports, container arrivals are expected to pick up in early June. But don’t expect a tsunami. Importers aren’t flush with stimulus money or confidence.
Inventory levels are already high, warehouse costs are rising, and the economy’s foundation is shakier than a bet on the Knicks.
Intermodal vs. Truckload
Rail networks are licking their chops. With near-record intermodal volumes in recent quarters, expect rails to aggressively guard their share.
Truckload, meanwhile, may see some spillover, especially in Southern California, where long-haul lanes are at 5-year volume lows.
But again, urgency is low. That means fewer time-sensitive loads and more freight moving via intermodal freight shipping. Shippers are currently playing it slow and cheap, like me stepping back into the dating world.
Trailer trends
As some of you may have learned the hard way, CVSA roadcheck week had a significant impact on rates and capacity:
- Dry van: Linehaul rates are $0.06/mile above 2024 and $0.08/mile above 2023. However, its direction from here is up for debate, and volatility may end up ruling the month.
- Flatbed: Flatbed rejections fell 50% in just one month. This is due in part to construction and energy projects stalling amid tariff and interest rate uncertainty.
- Reefer: Reefer rates and volume spiked in late May, hitting March highs, then promptly deflated. Expect rates to swing with weather and produce demand, then settle again before July harvest season.
And that’s the bottom line, cause Stone Cold said so
The market has some pulse, but it’s not a rally. Tariffs, labor pressures, and a fragmented carrier base are complicating what should be a straightforward seasonal uptick.
For now, it’s a question of whether these sparks ignite a fire, or fizzle into more of the same.
